Tus nqi ntawm cov iav photovoltaic tau nce ntxiv! Pom tseeb qhov zoo hauv kev ua lag luam oligopoly
Raws li PVInfoLink cov ntaub ntawv, thaum Lub Kaum Hli 7, lub ntsiab lus hais txog 3.2 hli txheej yog 37 yuan / m2, tus nqi nruab nrab nce ntawm 5.7% los ntawm lub lim tiam dhau los, thiab cov ntsiab lus tseem ceeb ntawm 2.0 hli txheej yog 28 yuan / m2, uas yog ib yam li lub lim tiam dhau los. Piv nrog rau cov iav zoo tib yam, cov iav photovoltaic muaj cov kev xav tau zoo dua thiab tsis muaj peev xwm tshiab, uas yog nruj rau lub sij hawm luv luv, thiab kev loj hlob sai hauv kev thov tau ua rau tus nqi ntawm cov iav photovoltaic nce ntxiv.
Kev loj hlob ntawm qhov kev thov rau cov iav photovoltaic yog tsav los ntawm kev loj hlob ntawm lub ntiaj teb photovoltaic kev teeb tsa thiab qhov nce hauv qhov nkag mus ntawm ob chav iav modules. Nyob rau hauv kaum xyoo dhau los, qhov kev thov rau cov iav photovoltaic tau ua raws li kev loj hlob ntawm qhov kev xav tau ntawm lub davhlau ya nyob twg, thiab qhov kev hloov pauv ntawm cov nqi tso tawm tsawg dua li ntawm cov modules.
Los ntawm 2010 txog 2019, photovoltaic ntsia muaj peev xwm nce sai ntawm 16GW rau 115GW, CAGR=24.4%; Kev loj hlob tus nqi ntawm kev thov rau cov iav photovoltaic yog qhov pib zoo ib yam li ntawm lub peev xwm nruab, CAGR=22%, vim li cas rau qhov qis me ntsis yog qhov kev txhim kho tas mus li ntawm cov roj teeb modules; Hais txog tus nqi tso zis, photovoltaic iav mus txog 15.8 billion hauv 2019, CAGR=13%, thiab qhov volatility tsawg dua li ntawm cov modules. Qhov laj thawj tseem ceeb yog vim li cas cov txheej txheem iav yog qhov paub tab thiab tus nqi poob qis me dua li cov saw tseem ceeb ntawm kev lag luam.
Lub hauv paus ntawm kev lag luam photovoltaic saw yog kev sau ntawm crystalline silicon raw cov ntaub ntawv thiab kev ua thiab tsim ntawm silicon rods, silicon ingots, thiab wafers. Qhov nruab nrab ntawm kev lag luam saw yog kev tsim cov cell photovoltaic thiab photovoltaic cell Cheebtsam. Tam sim no, crystalline silicon hlwb tau muab faib ua monocrystalline silicon thiab polycrystalline silicon. Lub downstream ntawm kev lag luam saw yog kev koom ua ke thiab kev ua haujlwm ntawm photovoltaic fais fab nroj tsuag tshuab.
Photovoltaic iav yog cov khoom siv raw ntawm cov khoom siv hluav taws xob photovoltaic. Nws lub zog thiab lub teeb xa hluav taws xob ncaj qha txiav txim siab lub neej thiab lub zog tsim hluav taws xob ntawm photovoltaic modules. Nws yog ib qho tseem ceeb rau kev tsim cov crystalline silicon photovoltaic modules.
Photovoltaic iav muaj kev ua haujlwm tshwj xeeb, cov ntaub ntawv pov thawj nyuaj, cov neeg siv khoom siab heev, lub voj voog ntev thiab tus nqi qis. Yog li ntawd, ib zaug lub tuam txhab photovoltaic cell iav tau tsim ib qho kev yuav khoom thiab muag kev sib raug zoo nrog cov chaw tsim khoom module, nws feem ntau kuj ruaj khov.
Photovoltaic iav tuaj yeem muab faib ua peb hom, uas yog ultra-dawb qauv iav, ultra-dawb txheej txheem ntab iav, thiab pob tshab conductive oxide coated (TCO) iav. Vim tias cov ntsiab lus hlau tsis tshua muaj ntawm ultra-dawb qauv iav thiab ultra-dawb ua tiav ntab iav, piv nrog cov iav zoo tib yam, ultra-dawb patterned iav muaj lub teeb xa mus rau crystalline silicon photovoltaic hlwb, yog li ua kom lub zog tsim hluav taws xob ntawm photovoltaic modules ua haujlwm tau zoo.
2.0mm thiab 2.5mm photovoltaic iav yog nyob rau theem pib ntawm lawv lub community launch, thiab tus nqi kuj yog siab heev. Txawm hais tias 20-40% ntawm cov iav qub tau txais kev cawmdim piv rau 3.2mm iav, tus nqi sib txawv nrog 3.2mm iav tsis cuam tshuam nws cov nqi kom zoo dua. Nrog rau ob chav iav sib tw tsav txoj kev loj hlob ntawm kev thov rau iav nyias, kev hloov pauv thiab kev siv thev naus laus zis ntawm cov iav loj loj thiab cov kab ntau lawm, tus nqi ntawm cov iav nyias tau maj mam txo.
Tam sim no, cov txiaj ntsig ntawm cov iav photovoltaic tau pib tshwm sim, thiab nws nyuaj rau cov tuam txhab me los sib tw nrog cov tuam txhab loj hauv cov ntsiab lus ntawm cov khoom zoo, kev ruaj ntseg, thiab tus nqi. Yog li ntawd, kev lag luam' s oligopoly kev ua lag luam muaj kev sib tw zoo.
Photovoltaic iav yog kev lag luam dual-intensive ntawm kev siv tshuab thiab peev. Kev lag luam teeb meem tsim los ntawm thawj-mover kom zoo dua, nplai kom zoo dua, cov peev txheej kom zoo dua thiab cov neeg siv khoom kom zoo dua yog qhov tseem ceeb, thiab tsis muaj cov neeg tuaj tshiab tau ntau xyoo.
Los ntawm qhov kev xav ntawm kev sib tw ua lag luam, 3 lub tuam txhab saum toj kawg nkaus hauv kuv lub teb chaws' s photovoltaic iav kev lag luam hauv xyoo 2019 yog: Xinyi Solar (38%), Flat (24%), Zaj sawv (10%), thiab CR3 nce mus txog 72%.
Xinyi Hnub Ci thiab Flatiron yog lub ntiaj teb' qhov loj tshaj plaws thiab thib ob loj tshaj plaws photovoltaic iav cov neeg tsim khoom, feem, nrog cov txiaj ntsig zoo tshaj plaws, uas muaj ntau dua li lwm cov tuam txhab hauv kev lag luam. Tam sim no, ib tug duopoly tau tsim.
Raws li Tuam Tshoj Kev Lag Luam Xov Xwm Network, lub peev xwm tsim tawm tshiab hauv 2020 tsuas yog suav nrog Flat Vietnam thawj kab 1,000 tons / hnub, Flat Vietnam thib ob-tier 1,000 tons / hnub, Xinyi Guangxi thawj kab 1,000 tons / hnub, Xinyi Guangxi thib ob- kab 1,000 Tons / hnub ntau lawm kab, Xinyi Hnub Ci Wuhu Xinyi 2 cov kab ntau lawm 1000 tons / hnub.
Muab rau hauv tus account lub sij hawm ramp-up ntawm tshiab photovoltaic iav cov kab ntau lawm, nws xav tias Xinyi Solar thiab Flatt yuav suav txog 38% thiab 24% ntawm kev ua lag luam raws li xyoo 2020.
Tshiab tsim muaj peev xwm ntawm photovoltaic iav yuav tsum muaj peev txheej loj. Yog li ntawd, tus thawj coj hauv kev lag luam' qhov ua tau zoo tshaj plaws hauv kev tsim muaj peev xwm yuav nyob twj ywm rau lub sijhawm ntev.
Raws li lub peev xwm ntau lawm ntawm cov thawj photovoltaic iav, kev lag luam concentration ntawm tsib lub tuam txhab photovoltaic iav saum toj kawg nkaus hauv lub tebchaws tau nce los ntawm 63.3% hauv 2013 txog li 80% thaum kawg ntawm 2019. Lub peev xwm tsim tawm tshiab hauv 2020 thiab dhau mus kuj tseem yuav feem ntau yog los ntawm cov tuam txhab ua lag luam, thiab nws xav tias kev lag luam sib koom yuav ntxiv rau hauv cov iav photovoltaic loj ua lag luam.
Nyob rau hauv lub photovoltaic iav sector, lub expansion lub sij hawm yog 18-24 lub hlis, thiab tsis muaj peev xwm tshiab peev nyob rau hauv lub sij hawm luv luv. Kev xa khoom thiab kev thov ntawm cov iav photovoltaic yuav sib npaug hauv 2020Q3, thiab cov khoom siv thiab kev thov yuav pom tseeb nruj hauv Q4. Lub photovoltaic iav sector tseem xav tias yuav pib lub voj voog tshiab ntawm tus nqi nce.
Kev cuam tshuam los ntawm qhov xwm txheej kis mob hauv tsev thiab txawv teb chaws, BloomberNEF nyuam qhuav cia siab tias yuav ntxiv 110GW ntawm PV ntsia lub peev xwm thoob ntiaj teb hauv 2020. Cov kev xav tau lag luam cuam tshuam los ntawm kev sib kis yuav raug ncua. Nws cia siab tias 140GW ntawm lub peev xwm txhim kho tshiab yuav raug ntxiv rau xyoo 2021, nce xyoo ib xyoos ntawm 27%.
Xyoo 2020, tau tsav los ntawm qhov tsis tiav 2019 cov phiaj xwm kev sib tw thiab UHV cov haujlwm, ua ke nrog cov phiaj xwm tshiab thiab cov nqi qis, CPIA cia siab tias xyoo 2020, kev teeb tsa PV hauv tsev yuav tsum nce 35-45GW. Tsav los ntawm kev txuas ntxiv kev vam meej ntawm kev lag luam photovoltaic, photovoltaic iav yuav tsum coj mus rau hauv kev loj hlob siab.
